NC State scientists predict
active Atlantic hurricane season

According to scientists at NC State, this year’s hurricane season will be an active one, at least as far as the eastern seaboard of the U.S. is concerned.

The scientists, Dr. Tingzhuang Yan, research associate, Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, Dr. Len Pietrafesa, professor and Associate Dean for External Affairs in the College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, and Dr. Dave Dickey, professor of statistics, arrived at their prediction by using a mathematical model they developed. This model evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

The researchers predict that 5 to 6 hurricanes will form in the Atlantic east of the U.S. eastern seaboard this year, with 1 to 2 of those hurricanes likely to make landfall along the eastern seaboard. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The study was co-sponsored by the National Climatic Data Center and the Coastal Services Center of NOAA, as a component of the NOAA/NCSU Cooperative Program on Climate and Weather Impacts on Society and the Environment (CWISE).

Posted June 9, 2006

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