Mathematical models of health outcomes (example of colorectal cancer)

Georgiy Bobashev
RTI International


	As a part of Statistical Epidemiology Department, mathematical 
modeling group has been working on a number of modeling projects including 
the spread of infectious diseases (flu, HIV), drug use and behavior 
(smoking, heroin injection, risky sexual behavior) and health outcomes 
models.  The objective of the latter research is to assess the public 
health impacts of new health interventions, tests and treatments by using 
a dynamical model of representative US cohort. This model will allow 
translation of theoretical individual level effectiveness into real world 
impacts by including factors that influence technology adoption and 
ultimate health benefits. This model combines critical components such as 
disease life course, testing and treatment, population and epidemiology, 
as well as economics.

	I will demonstrate an application of this approach to colorectal 
cancer and the adoption of new screening tests.  We present changes in 
health outcomes, benefits and monetized costs due to the introduction of a 
new DNA-based test. Simulations are based on the nationally representative 
synthetic cohort.