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July 21, 2006

Can rate hikes go too far?

With the Federal Reserve now increasing interest rates for the 17th straight time, some economists are questioning if this is too much. N.C. State University's Mike Walden examines the risk.

"The risk is … that monetary policy -- which is really what this is about, and what this is about is increasing interest rates to slow the economy down and prevent recession from getting out of hand -- that kind of policy works with a kind of lag," explains Dr. Walden, a professor of agricultural and resource economics. "In other words, it takes maybe six to 12 months to see the full effects.

"And the issue is we have not yet seen, for example, full effects of the interest rate hikes that the Fed did a year ago or even six months ago, so that when they look at the economy now and they may say, 'Well, it’s not to our liking. We need to raise rates again.'

"The issue is if six or 12 months down the road we find that, gee, the economy has slowed down -- but it’s put us in a recession. And some economists are now raising that red flag and questioning whether maybe the Fed has gone to far," Walden adds.

"Now in their defense, the new head of the Fed [Ben] Bernanke is an expert in these areas, this is what his whole academic career has been about, so he is well aware of the risks so presumably he’s weighed them in taking these actions."

Posted by deeshore at July 21, 2006 10:26 AM

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