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August 11, 2006

Forecasts for the second half

While it may be difficult to think that half of 2006 is now over, economists are now making their predictions for the second half of the year. And NC State University's Mike Walden says there's lots of agreement about what's in store.

"This is the time of year when you will see a lot of publications publishing forecasts by a group of economists. For example, the Wall Street Journal does this every six months," says Dr. Walden, an economist with the North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service. "So we have a new batch of forecasts out for the second half of the year.

"I would say these forecasts are rather consistent -- you might even call them boring -- because ... for the second half of the year these economists think the economy will continue to grow but at a slower rate," he says. "We’ve talked about that a lot.

"They do see unfortunately a slight up-tick in the unemployment rate –- not anything dramatic, maybe one-tenth or two-tenths of a percent.

"They see the inflation rate staying around 3 percent.

"And although many predict perhaps another interest rate increase by the Fed, overall they don’t see a lot of change in interest rates. So depending on your perspective you may look at that as a good forecast or a bad forecast, but … there does seem to be a lot of consistency -- at least right now -- among these economists."

Posted by deeshore at August 11, 2006 08:00 AM

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