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August 16, 2006

When slower growth is good

The latest barometer on the national economy shows it growing at only half the rate in the second quarter as in the first three months of the year. Yet the report was greeted with good news from investors. N.C. State University economist Mike Walden explains why.

“Indeed, we had big gains in the stock market after this number came out, showing, for example, that GDP -- gross domestic product -- which is our barometer for the large economy, grew at only 2.5 percent in the second quarter compared to actually almost 6 percent in the first quarter,” says Dr. Walden, a professor of agricultural and resource economics.

“Which means the economy is slowing down -- slower retail sales and likely a slower job market.

“So I think the question is, Well, why would this be greeted with good news?

“Well, I think it was greeted with good news because many feel that this will give the Fed -- the Federal Reserve -- reason to stop raising interest rates. In fact, this has been a slowdown that the Fed has wanted.

“This is why they have raised interest rates 17 times. They want the economy to cool off in order to arrest the rate of increase in inflation,” Walden says. “And it looks now [as if] the Fed has gotten its wish. So if the markets are cooling off, that may mean we’ve seen the end of higher interest rates.”

Posted by deeshore at August 16, 2006 08:52 AM

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