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September 14, 2006
Will the pause continue?
At its last meeting the Federal Reserve decided not to raise short-term interest rates for the first time in over two years. N.C. State University economist Mike Walden looks at the factors that will determine how long the pause will last.
“Crucially it will depend on how the Fed reads the future economic tea leaves,” says Dr. Walden, a specialist with the North Carolina Cooperative Extension Service. “Now if they believe that the economy is slowing and will continue to slow, I think the pause will last.
“Some even think that if the slowdown is very strong –- that is, if there is a danger we may move into a recession -- we may see the Fed lower interest rates later this year.
“On the other hand, if the economy picks up strength -– and, for example, the last two months consumer income and consumer spending have gone up very strongly –- … then we may see more rate hikes down the road,” he adds.
“I think the betting among economists right now, though, is that this pause will continue.”
Posted by deeshore at September 14, 2006 08:05 AM