"You would get that expectation, but economists have long been aware of problems in the consumer confidence ratings," explains Dr. Walden. "Number one, consumer confidence tends to be a reaction to old news. It doesn’t necessarily reflect what’s going on right now in the economy.

"Also, the consumer confidence ratings are swayed by how people feel about the economy -– not necessarily by what they are actually doing in the economy," he adds. "So, for example, if many people feel ... the overall economy is bad, they will give a bad rating on a consumer confidence measure even though what they are doing personally is spending, investing and doing good things.

"What economists have found is actually that past patterns in consumer spending (are) a much better predictor of future actions by consumers ... than ... consumer confidence."