“Well, economists have obviously been developing over time some ideas -- some tools -- to use to predict the economy. And these have been tested and have been well supported. And I think economic predictions can be very accurate when we have the proper conditions for making those predictions," says Dr. Walden, a professor of agricultural and resource economics.

"But there are two wildcards: One is having accurate information. One of the problems in economics is that don’t often have real-time data on some important economic measures. We may have data that is three, four and in some cases six months old. So that hurts our predictions," he says.

"The other wildcard, of course, is human behavior. Now economics is a science based on human behavior. It’s not based on elements or physical properties. And so unlike running an experiment in a lab, we always have to account for human behavior that’s not always perfectly predictable. Humans won’t behave the same in all circumstances," he explains. "That obviously tents to throw our forecasts off."