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June 20, 2007
Are we in a recession?
The government recently said the economy grew at less than 1 percent pace for the first three months of this year. But N.C. State University economist Mike Walden says the slower growth rate doesn't mean we are in a recession.
"Technically it implies that we are not in a full-blown recession. That would actually take that number ... cited -- the 1 percent growth rate -- to be a negative number," explains Dr. Walden, a professor of agricultural and resource economics, "because a recession means the economy is actually retracting.
"Now that said, some economists would throw out a term called a growth recession: that is, we are growing, but we are growing at such a slow pace that it is hard for average people to see their standard of living go up.
"So whatever you want to call it, certainly in the first part of this year the economy has been moving ahead very, very slowly. But there is good news," he adds. "Most forecasters -– and of course people have to realize that forecasting is an inexact science -- but most forecasters see the economy improving substantially, especially in the second half of the year.
"So I think the conclusion is that we have gone through a slow patch, so to speak, in economic growth, but it looks like that slow patch will be over and we'll be moving ahead at a fuller head of steam."
Posted by deeshore at June 20, 2007 08:00 AM