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October 09, 2007

Tame inflation?

One of the important economic gauges that the Federal Reserve watches in making decisions on interest rates is inflation. It's widely thought that the Fed wants the inflation rate to be no higher than 2 percent on an annual basis, says N.C. State University extension economist Mike Walden. And, he adds, there is some evidence that we've met that target. Listen

"If you track the inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve prefers, then yes, we are there and we've been there for two months. The Federal Reserve likes to follow something called the personal consumption expenditures price index (that's a mouthful) or PCE because they feel that it better tracks what consumers are actually buying and where they are buying it, and therefore they get a better gauge of prices.

"Furthermore, the Fed likes to exclude energy and food prices because they feel these are prices that can go up and down with a lot of volatility," Walden adds. "So when we look at the PCE, excluding energy and food prices, we see that it's slightly under 2 percent for about two months in a row. And this is thought to be the target that is set by the Federal Reserve -- that they want that number to be under 2 percent.

"This is fuel to those who think that the Federal Reserve will in its next meeting likely turn its attention away from fighting inflation," Walden concludes, "because there's some evidence that fight's been won to ensuring there’s enough growth in the economy."

Posted by deeshore at October 9, 2007 05:13 PM

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