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May 05, 2008
Is higher inflation a sure thing?
The news on inflation appears to be bad and getting worse. Prices for gas and food, certainly necessities for most people, have been sprinting upward. Some talk about the country moving into a period of stagflation or a nasty combination of recession and high inflation. Is there any good news to suggest that our inflation worries may be overstated? Listen
Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:
"Well, let me give you three reasons why some economists are more optimistic about the inflation outlook. Reason number one: If we are in a recession or at least a slow growth period, usually we see those periods resulting in moderating inflation, maybe not immediately but down the road for the simple reason that people are not buying as much and that takes the pressure of prices. Secondly, we tend to see the prices of raw materials, basic inputs if you will - lumber, metals, etcetera - actually fall during times of a down economy. And then thirdly, and this is somewhat unique to where we are today, everyone knows that the housing market has been struggling, and housing prices have either been going up more slowly, or in some markets, have actually been coming down, and housing costs are actually the largest component of the inflation index. So for all three of these reasons, some economists see inflation actually moderating lower this year and into 2009, and that would obviously help the economic situation of most households."
Posted by Dave at May 5, 2008 07:50 AM