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June 06, 2008
Is inflation being understated?
Egg prices are up 30 percent, milk prices 16 percent, cheese prices 14 percent, and gas prices are up 30 percent, all over the past year. Yet the overall inflation rate is only 4 percent. How can this be? Is there something wrong with how economists and statisticians measure inflation?
Listen
Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:
"I think the answer is to understand how the inflation rate is measured. The government each month looks at the prices of hundreds of products and services sold in over 20,000 outlets, and they calculate an average price index that's not only based on price changes but how important that item is to the overall consumer's budget. For example, you mentioned eggs, milk, cheese all going up at double-digit rates. Each of those items, however, account for less than 1 percent of consumer spending. Even gasoline, which has gotten a lot of attention, takes only six and half percent of the average consumer's spending. So when we look at the overall inflation rate, we have to factor in not only price increases but how important that item is in the consumer's budget. And then there's one other element. The fact is that many items have actually gone down in price over the last year. Appliances, furniture, tools, clothing, TVs, computers have all seen price declines in the last 12 months. So you have to remember when we're looking at the overall inflation rate, it is just that, an overall inflation rate based on all items and based on their relative importance."
Posted by Dave at June 6, 2008 08:00 AM