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October 22, 2008
The bouncing inflation ball
The latest inflation report revealed some good news for consumers. Average prices actually dropped. Should we all be jumping up and down with glee because the inflation problem is solved?
Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:
"What you're referring to is the August inflation report, and we saw, actually, that prices were down on average in August for consumers. That was certainly good news; however, if you go beyond the headlines, you find this is totally due - totally due - to the fact that oil and gas prices fell during that month. And, indeed, if you take out energy prices and also take out food prices, you see inflation was up - prices were up - and it's still running about 2.5 percent annually. Now, I think this really shows us the benefit of monitoring two inflation rates. The overall inflation rate, which, of course, was down in August, but for previous months, it had been up, is much more volatile. It is going to move around, particularly as very volatile elements like energy and food prices move up and down. On the other hand, the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes energy and food prices, tends to be much more stable. And I think in this example, most people would say, 'Hey, in August, I still felt inflationary pressure.' Well, if you look at the overall inflation rate, you'd say, 'Well, no you didn't, prices were down.' But if you look at that core rate, then you say, 'Yes, we see a steady issue with inflation where it's running about 2.5 to 3 percent a year.'"
Posted by Dave at October 22, 2008 08:00 AM