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November 10, 2008

How bad of a recession?

With most economists now saying the economy is in a recession, the question becomes how severe the recession will be. So, are we looking at a mild, average or bad recession?

Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:

"In judging recessions, we look at two characteristics, length and depth. In terms of length, many economists now think this recession may have started in the fall of 2007, may last about 2 years, until the fall of 2009. That would make it one of the longest recessions since World War II. In contrast, for example, the recession of 2001 was less than a year. This recession is also expected to be deeper. For example, during the 2001 recession, unemployment went up to only 6 percent. We're already at 6 percent, and many think that we could go to perhaps 8 or 9 percent. That would still be short, however, of the 11 percent unemployment rate we saw in the early 1980s recession. Now, in terms of value of production - what the economy produces - many economists are looking to this recession to see a reduction in the value of economic production of about 3 or 4 percent, which again would make it one of the biggest declines since World War II."

Posted by Dave at November 10, 2008 08:00 AM