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December 17, 2008
North Carolina's economic outlook
Dr. Mike Walden just published the latest edition of the North Carolina Economic Outlook, which includes analysis and forecasts of our state economy through 2009. Give us a sneak preview.
Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:
"Like the nation, I do think unfortunately North Carolina is now in a recession. I think it began in early 2008. And in fact, jobs are down since then by a little under 1 percent. I think the recession in North Carolina will continue through at least the first half of 2009. Jobs will continue to drop, unfortunately. The unemployment rate will rise, and I think it will increase a full percentage point in 2009. Retail sales and wages, both adjusted for inflation, have been falling. I think they will continue to fall in 2009. The one glimmer of good news that I see for 2009 is I think the housing market will bottom out, and we'll actually see an increase in housing sales in 2009 compared to 2008. But before you get real excited about that, this is going to be an increase over a very low base. That is, the housing market is very down right now, so if we have an increase next year, it's still not going to mean that the housing market is back on track. But it will mean that the market is moving in the right direction, and a recovery in the housing market will help North Carolina's economy overall also recover."
Posted by Dave at December 17, 2008 08:00 AM