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December 01, 2008

Where's the next bubble?

In many ways, we live in a bubble economy. It seems that during each economic cycle, some sector of the economy overextends itself, then sets up the entire economy for a fall. Of course, we call these falls recessions. The housing market was the last sector to have a bubble. Where might the next bubble be?

Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:

"Well, this is a very interesting question. You're right about the trends in growth and recession, that many recessions are set up by some sector overextending itself. For example, 20 years ago it was commercial real estate. Ten years ago it was the tech sector, and of course, this time around, it's been residential housing. So many economists are looking beyond the current cycle and saying, 'All right, let's assume we get back to growth, what might set off the next recession?' That is, where might the next bubble be developed? And many economists are saying it's not actually going to be an individual sector. Instead, it may be a country, and they point to the country of China. China, of course, has enjoyed tremendous economic growth during the last 7 to 8 years, but along the way, it has developed an inflation issue. And some worry that the Chinese inflation rate might eventually spark a big plunge in their economy. And if so, since China is now an increasingly important part of the world economy, that could set up a pull back all across the world. So these impacts could certainly be worldwide, and they would probably be negative. Many people might think, well, we'll just pick up the slack here. What China produces, we'll produce. Well, it's not going to work that way. China's both a seller in the world economy as well as a buyer. So the Chinese economy certainly bears watching over the next 5 to 6 years to try to observe if they are developing bubblelike characteristics."

Posted by Dave at December 1, 2008 08:00 AM