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July 16, 2009

Bumps in the recovery

There's growing agreement among economists that an economic recovery will start toward the end of the year. Yet recently two changes have occurred that could stall this turnaround. What are they? Listen

Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:

"Well, they are two factors that oftentimes we do see as impediments to economic growth. They are rising interest rates and, of course, rising energy costs. And both of them have surged in recent weeks. For example, long-term interest rates have increased almost one full percentage point, from about 3 percent up to close to 4 percent. And oil prices have actually doubled. If sustained, both of these could add significantly to consumer costs, and really hit consumers when they're still down on the mat and really put a damper on further improvements in consumer spending. However, many economists say, hey, these increases in costs in interest rates and energy are premature. They think they're based on overly optimistic expectations about the future economy, and when reality sets in - reality being, yes, the economy may recover, but it's going to be very hard going - they do see pull backs in both energy costs and interest rates. Obviously, the future will tell the tale."

Posted by Dave at July 16, 2009 08:00 AM