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May 13, 2010

Will higher gas prices break the economy?

Just when we are getting some positive news on the economy, gas prices start to rise again. Why? And will their increase derail the recovery from the recession?

"Gas prices are rising because of the economy, especially world-wise, is recovering. We see a very close path between economic activity and the use of energy especially oil energy. When the economy goes down, when it is in a recession, people (and) businesses use less energy. People drive less. Oil usage goes down. That puts downward pressure on prices. The reverse (happens) when the economy comes back, and the world economy is coming back and that is putting upward pressure on oil and gas prices.

"In terms of whether that will cripple the economy, I don't think so, but I am going to put an asterisk on the side of that. First of all, people, I think, tend to overestimate how much out of their budget goes to gas. It is under 7 percent of your total spending goes to gas. About every dollar increase in gas prices send about $7 billion of consumer spending out of the country, but that is less than 1 percent of total spending. So the economy is hurt by higher gas prices, but again it is a relative term, not that much.

"Researchers have found -- economic researchers have found -- that we can actually absorb higher gas prices if they go up in drips and drabs. If they go up a little bit that allows us time to adjust, maybe to adjust our driving habits, maybe to buy more fuel efficient cars.

"The gas price to really watch right now is $4 a gallon. That was the last peak, and that is when we really saw a change in behavior and we really saw adverse effects on the economy. So $3 a gallon, we will probably whiz through that without looking twice. Four dollars a gallon, I think, is where it could really hit the economy."

Posted by deeshore at May 13, 2010 08:39 AM

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