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July 01, 2010
Will inflation remain tame?
The latest numbers on inflation were quite good. Depending on the measure used, inflation is running between 1 and 2 percent annually. Yet some analysts have been sounding an inflation warning. Should we be worried?
Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:
"I don't think yet. ... I think two big factors will continue to keep inflation low: One is the very high unemployment rate. We are still going to see unemployment probably over 9 percent this year and maybe still 8 percent next year. What high unemployment obviously does is it keeps a lid on labor cost and labor cost being the most important factor for most businesses' total cost. That is going to keep inflation low.
"The second is business competition due to the recession and the slow recovery. Many retailers have very little pricing power -- meaning the ability to pass on higher prices to customers. Customers simply won't pay the higher prices, so analysts think that is going to keep a lid also on inflation.
"And I might throw a third factor in here: The Federal Reserve clearly has printed a lot of money. However, a lot of this money is sitting in the vaults of banks, and there is a thought that the Federal Reserve will pull that money back before it is able to be deployed. That will also keep inflation very low."
Posted by deeshore at July 1, 2010 08:26 AM