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ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE: Incompatible markets?

November 17, 2009

Recently, the Dow-Jones industrial average, the most-watched indicator of the stock market, broke through the 10,000 level. Since March, this index is up just under 50 percent, yet at the same time, the number of those without jobs has hit records, and the national unemployment rate has continued to climb. So how can Wall Street be doing so well when Main Street isn't? Listen

Dr. Mike Walden, North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at N.C. State University, responds:

"Wall Street focuses on one thing: profitability of companies. And the fact is, profitability of companies overall has been improving. Now, one reason is that labor costs have been falling, while productivity from those workers has been rising. And also, we've moved well beyond the danger point in the economy where we were a year ago. So I think improved profitability, less fear about the future economy - we're not going fall off a cliff - I think that has contributed immensely to the Dow Jones industrial average and other stock market indices moving to new highs. The question becomes - and this is really where economists are debating - is this sustainable? Is this growth in the stock market and stock market indices sustainable when we get beyond, let's say, the end of this year? We're probably going to see fairly good economic growth this year because we're replenishing inventory. But next year is a question mark. Can the economy continue to grow if we have these very high unemployment rates? And that's why you have a constant debate between people who try to guess where the stock market is going? You have one half that says, yes, we can - unemployment, if comes down just a little bit, that will be enough to keep the economy growing and continue to have companies increase their profits. But you have another camp that says, no, after this year, we're going to perhaps have another dip down in the economy, and that will actually pull the stock market down. This is one reason - another great example - why trying to guess where the stock market is going is so, so much fun."

Posted by Dave at November 17, 2009 08:00 AM